Prediction Interval Calculator
Estimate the range for a future observation in regression analysis. Simply input your data and confidence level to calculate the prediction interval.
Input Data
Enter your X and Y data points as comma-separated values, then specify the new X value and confidence level for prediction.
Prediction Interval
Lower Bound:
Upper Bound:
Visualization
Understanding Prediction Intervals
A prediction interval is a range that estimates where a future single observation will fall, given a set of previous observations. It's wider than a confidence interval because it accounts for both the uncertainty in estimating the population mean and the random variation of individual data points around the mean.
In regression analysis, after fitting a model to your data (X and Y values), you can use a prediction interval to estimate the range of Y for a new X value. The formula considers the variability of the data, the number of data points, and the new X value's position relative to the mean of X values.
- Input X-axis Data and Y-axis Data: Enter your paired data points separated by commas.
- New X Value: Input the X value for which you want to predict the interval for Y.
- Confidence Level: Choose a confidence level (e.g., 0.95 for 95%) to determine the width of the interval.
This calculator uses linear regression to find the best-fit line through your data and then calculates the prediction interval based on the chosen confidence level. The visualization helps to understand how the prediction interval relates to your data and the regression line.
Learn more about prediction intervals on statistics resources and textbooks.